Soybean production in Canada is anticipated to fall for the first time since 2007, while provincially, Manitoba is expected to see an increase.

According to the latest Statistics Canada report on principal field crop production, Canadian farmers reported that soybean production could fall by two per cent this year, which reflects a decline in harvested area.

"That was largely due to a big drop in Ontario production," says FarmLink Marketing Solutions market analyst Mike Davey. "Western Canada - Manitoba and Saskatchewan — stayed true to the trend we've seen over the last number of years, and both provinces actually seeded more and produced higher soybean crops again this year."

Soybean production in Manitoba is reported at 1.3 million tonnes, which is 14 per cent higher than last year.

Canadian farmers also expect lower wheat and canola production compared to last year. Nationally, canola production is expected to drop by about 13 per cent from last year, which Stats Canada says is due to a lower expected average yield and fewer harvested acres.

Wheat production is anticipated to drop by over 10 per cent, with a decrease in average yield, but conversely, a slight expected rise in harvested acres. Davey talks about how this compared to expectations.

"The October report here gave us 26 million metric tonnes [of expected wheat production]. That was a little higher — about a million tonnes higher — than what the trade was looking for coming into the report, but we did see from harvest reports, we saw yields coming in at or better than expected across a good chunk of Western Canada. So, a bit of a surprise on the aggregate number, but in terms of reports from the field, not really all that surprising."

Davey doesn't think this will affect the balance sheets much because demands look strong going forward.

Meanwhile, corn, barley and oats are expected to see an increase this year.